Four access modes for an NCI pipeline site near Los Frailes, scored against the six v1 Outcomes metrics. This converts the comparative access memo from a logistics comparison into a framework-grade underwriting artifact: explicit rubric, v1 directional ranges, named v1.1 anchor paths, and a veto-threshold aggregation.
How do we move guests and residents between SJD and the site fastest and cheapest per passenger-mile?
On that question the paved highway wins. It is also the answer that quietly dismantles the premium the project depends on. The conventional question selects for the worst strategic outcome.
Which access mode, as an underwriting input to the site, moves the six Outcomes metrics in the right direction without tripping a veto threshold?
Access infrastructure is not a logistics line item. It is a programming decision that changes the site's relationship to its surroundings, its capital stack, and its risk profile. That is what the framework is built to score.
Higher score is better in every row. The aggregate line is an equal-weight mean, shown for reference only. It is not the decision rule. The decision rule is the veto gate in the next section.
| v1 Outcomes metric | Helicopter | eVTOL | Fast ferry | Paved highway |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial ROIHigher is better | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Timeline to accessLower months is better | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Cost of capitalLower blended WACC is better | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Lifecycle carbonLower is better | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Economic developmentHigher local multiplier is better | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Resilience and insurabilityHigher is better | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Equal-weight mean (reference only) | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
Each metric below carries the scoring rubric, the four modes' v1 directional values, the method, and the named v1.1 anchor that will replace the directional figure with a primary source.
Effect of the access mode on unlevered IRR over the hold, through the project's pricing premium, absorption pace, and any direct revenue line the mode itself carries.
Method
v1 IRR effect modeled qualitatively from premium preservation, absorption pace, and revenue lines. The road's negative score reflects induced-supply dilution of the project's absolute market position, not its per-trip cost.
v1.1 anchor path
NCREIF NPI mixed-use subset for the project base case, plus a comp-set access-premium elasticity study using Costa Palmas absorption and price data, plus a discounted induced-supply scenario for the road case.
Months from decision to commercial access availability. Adapted from the framework's timeline-to-shovel-ready metric: access availability gates when the site can sell and operate at full premium.
Method
Time-to-commercial-launch ranges taken from the companion access memo, cross-checked against the regional regulatory precedent it cites. Treated as the gating constraint on premium-rate revenue.
v1.1 anchor path
Heliport and vertiport permitting case files from the relevant Mexican aviation authority, naval and environmental review timelines for comparable pier projects, and corridor-operator actuals.
Effect of the access mode on the blended WACC the project can assemble. A climate-aligned, brand-positive access story widens the set of capital layers available to the stack.
Method
Scored on whether the mode opens or closes capital layers, not on a modeled rate. The framework's WACC metric is about feasibility width, and access narrative is a real input to which layers will participate.
v1.1 anchor path
Green-bond pricing comps for transport and marine assets, mission co-GP term sheets, and current senior-debt rates at the time of stack assembly. Model the blended WACC delta with and without the aligned layers.
Embodied plus operational carbon of the access mode over the project horizon. The framework adds what the access memo omits: embodied carbon of the infrastructure itself, and induced emissions.
Method
Per-trip operational figures from the access memo. Embodied and induced load added by the framework. The road's score is held at 2 rather than 1 only because the per-trip number is moderate, the embodied and induced load is the real story.
v1.1 anchor path
Full LCA per infrastructure asset, pad, pier, vertiport, road segment, aligned with ULI Greenprint and the RMI Zero-Carbon Building framework. Operator fuel-burn actuals for operational carbon. Induced-VMT modeling for the road case.
Durable local jobs, small-business formation, and local economic multiplier created by the access mode. The framework reads for durable local economy, not one-time construction spend.
Method
Scored on durability and local capture of the economic benefit. The road's score reflects a real but double-edged effect, the framework does not net it to zero, but it does not credit it as durable either.
v1.1 anchor path
BLS-equivalent local employment data and a local-multiplier analysis on the Shuman framework, a La Ribera working-fleet economic survey, and cabotage crew-employment records from comparable Mexican ferry operations.
Ability of the access mode to keep functioning through weather, grid, and climate-insurance dislocations across a 30-year horizon, and its effect on the project's insurance friction.
Method
Reliability figures from the access memo. The framework weights 30-year climate exposure and reversibility heavily, which is why the road's high day-to-day reliability does not lift its score.
v1.1 anchor path
A FEMA CRS-equivalent resilience tiering mapped to the Mexican civil-protection framework, carrier underwriting feedback on each mode, and storm-surge modeling for any fixed pier siting.
This is the framework's open question on aggregation, resolved for this decision. A weighted mean lets a mode buy back a fatal flaw with strength elsewhere. Access infrastructure has flaws that cannot be bought back. Four gates apply. Failing any one is a no-go, regardless of score.
Ferry as the spine. Helicopter as the bridge. eVTOL as the anchor. Paved highway as a no-go, with an active position against it.
The three private modes each clear the veto gate and each lead a different metric: helicopter wins timeline, ferry leads the blended scorecard and economic development, eVTOL leads carbon and cost of capital. They are not competitors. They are phases. The road fails every gate and, once built, enables every competing project along the corridor. The strategic move is to build private access and stay out of, or quietly oppose, the public road conversation.
Sequenced into the Now City Stack four-phase methodology:
The recommendation is robust to most single-variable swings. These are the inputs that move it, and they are the ones to monitor as the site advances through pre-development.